Jacob Sensiba, Author at The Free Financial Advisor

Inflation, Gold, Semiconductors

April 28, 2021 by Jacob Sensiba Leave a Comment

There are a lot of moving parts in the economy right now. Inflation has become a concern, people are looking at gold more as a hedge, and there’s a shortage in semiconductors. In this piece, we’ll explore some of those dynamics and what some of the investment implications are.

Inflation

Inflation will most likely increase. Many projections estimate the FED will meet/beat their target of 2%.

I do believe that an increase in goods and services will not affect demand as it would have in the past. Stimulus payments to consumers created enough excess cash that people didn’t mind, or even notice, an increase in prices.

I do realize I’m painting with a broad brush here, and undoubtedly there will be some that will notice the difference. I’m simply stating that demand will not suffer from price creep as it used to, at least while the government continues writing checks.

Gold

We could see another uptrend in gold. There’s a certain recipe that makes the case for a bullish perspective on gold – inflation pressures, increased money supply, and low-interest rates.

The FED continues to supply the market with liquidity with its asset-buying program. An increase in the money supply dilutes the value of the dollar (USD). When the USD decreases in value, typically gold does well.

There is a caveat to that, however. Demand for US Treasury securities is weakening, specifically from foreign investors. To double down on that, foreign investors are net sellers of Treasuries. There have to be enough buyers to meet Treasury issuance, otherwise, the FED won’t have enough “reserves” to inject liquidity into the system.

With regard to low rates, that is a good sign for gold, but it’s also a good sign for equities (companies) with a high tendency to borrow. I’m mainly looking at the technology sector. Especially these unicorns that have high valuations, but low (or negative) profits.

Semiconductors

There’s also a current market disruption at play here…semiconductor shortage. Demand across many applications are at multi-year, sometimes multi-decade, highs. Personal computers, electric vehicles, autonomous vehicles, AI, and the like all use semiconductors.

A semiconductor shortage has many implications:

Decrease in production
Price increase
Nationalist mentality
R&D disruption

A decrease in production can hurt the bottom line. It all depends on when the shortage ends. If production reduces enough for a sustained period, adjustments will have to be made by corporations.

A price increase is likely because of supply and demand dynamics. The price of semiconductors will go up, so the price of the products they’re used in will also go up. This could hurt demand for those products and could hurt consumers.

There are a select few companies that supply the majority of the world’s semiconductors. This could have a similar effect as Covid had with regard to supply chain management. Companies relied on global trade and cooperation to sustain their supply chain operations. When countries shut down due to the pandemic, global trade suffered as a result. Countries might shift to manufacturing their own semiconductors instead of relying on supply from trading partners.

Semiconductors are only getting less expensive and more efficient. With a shortage, and possibly less money coming into the manufacturers, it’s possible that this dynamic of cheaper and better plateaus…at least temporarily. It’s also possible that the shortage improves operations and makes the manufacturers more agile. Some countries have a very unique ability to progress, strengthen, and adapt when a roadblock presents itself.

With that said, I believe semiconductors will be a great investment opportunity. Their demand is only going to increase because of the push to provide the world with electric vehicles and clean energy. I would, however, pay attention to the shortage and I might wait until that shortage ends and prices stabilize.

What Is An NFT?

April 14, 2021 by Jacob Sensiba Leave a Comment

The acronym NFT has been in the media a lot in the last year. With more of us at home and the US government supplying stimulus money, people have been looking for something to do and ways to make money. Enter in the NFT. The question is, what is an NFT and how do they work?

What is an NFT?

NFT’s can be used to sell digital art (music, photos, videos, etc.) or a gaming NFT marketplace is a great place to turn game collectibles into NFT’s, and be sold as exclusive content

NFT’s are part of the blockchain (most popularly the Ethereum blockchain). Ethereum is a cryptocurrency. Ethereum differs from the “mainstream” Bitcoin because it is open source, which means it can be edited, updated, and/or improved upon.

NFT’s can be used to sell digital art (music, photos, videos, etc.).

How’s it work with the artist?

NFT’s could give artists a more significant piece of the pie when selling their work. Right now, most of the profit goes to middlemen/women. Authentication in the form of NFT would enable the artist to participate more in the revenue sharing of their work.

On the other side of that coin, if you’re buying NFT’s, you have the ability to support your favorite artists. Also, owning the NFT is akin to owning the original. You’re able to “use” it without the fear of being sued for copyright infringement. The “proof of work” for owning the NFT is recorded on the blockchain.

All that being said, owning an NFT just means you own the original version. There can and will be copies of that thing on the internet. Copies can be made much more easily than if those things were in the physical world.

What to watch for

You need to be careful when you are bidding for NFT’s. Someone can create an NFT that’s a copy of an original NFT. Hopefully, though, the questions when creating the NFT weed out the copies and “fakes”.

Additionally, blockchains and cryptocurrencies use an extraordinary amount of energy. The carbon footprint created by mining a single Bitcoin is ginormous (Source).

Should You Invest in Mobile Homes?

March 17, 2021 by Jacob Sensiba 1 Comment

Mobile homes get a bad rap, but they could really be a good place to invest money. Investing in real estate is a good way to diversify your portfolio. Mobile, or manufactured homes, could be a good little niche in that sector. Should you invest in mobile homes?

What is a mobile home?

Mobile homes, also known as manufactured homes, are residential structures built in a factory or separate location and moved to the desired location. These homes are built according to HUD guidelines.

Those guidelines are as follows:

Design and construction
Strength and durability
Transportability
Fire resistance
Energy efficiency
Overall quality

Why invest in mobile homes?

Social stigma around mobile home parks prevent people from investing in them

Investing in individual mobile homes is difficult because the people that rent them are a (and I’m making a big generalization here) a challenging bunch to deal with. Invest in the grounds and infrastructure where the mobile/manufactured homes are.

There are several benefits to investing in mobile home parks:

Recession-resistant (held up through the GFC)
Tenants rarely leave, but sometimes, evictions are necessary (as they are with any real estate endeavor)
Supply is waning, demand is increasing
Predictable maintenance costs
Stigma reduces competition with other investors
Great financing options
Limited need for contractors
They’re inexpensive (you can buy individual units to rent on your property for less than $10,000 – depending on the area and demand)

(List provided by BiggerPockets)

Conclusion

As I mentioned in the beginning, investing in real estate is a great way to diversify your portfolio. It can also be a good way to get a return on your money.

Within the real estate sector, mobile home parks can be a very good niche, for the reasons I mentioned above. Should you invest in mobile homes?

Prioritizing Home Renovations

March 10, 2021 by Jacob Sensiba Leave a Comment

As I’ve said previously, K and I are moving back to our home in Oconomowoc, WI. We’re head over heels excited about it, but there are some things we need to do and some things that we want to do. Today, I’m going to talk about some of the projects we have planned and help you prioritize your home renovations.

What we need to do

There are two/three things that we need to do once we move back.

The first thing is to sure up the foundation. Our house is old, really old. The foundation is not as secure as we need it to be, so that’ll be the first thing we do. Get some extra support posts installed in the basement and secure/replace some of the old joists that have seen better days.

The second thing we have to do is insulate the kitchen. I don’t know what the prior owners did (they remodeled the home and flipped it to us), but the kitchen bleeds AC/heat. In the winter, it’s very clear because it’s darn cold in the kitchen. What’s more, the kitchen sink and the dishwasher will stop working if it gets too cold. To ensure the pipes won’t freeze and burst, and make the kitchen more energy-efficient and comfortable, we have to insulate.

The third thing is not incredibly important but should get done at some point. Off of the kitchen is the back door entrance. You enter into a “three-seasons room” and then enter a second door to get into the kitchen. The three seasons room needs insulation as well. Beneath it, we need to lay a vapor barrier on the ground and spray insulation into the floor joists. Now, this is not very important because of the second door. However, more insulation will allow for more utilization of that room.

What we want to do

This list is pretty long, as is the case for most homeowners. Some of the windows need to be replaced, we want to install an island in the kitchen, and we want to remodel the downstairs bathroom.

With regard to the bathroom, the current setup is one full bath and one-half bath. They are right next to each other, but the half bath (in terms of square footage) is much bigger than the full bath. What we would like to do is demo the wall in between and make it one, big bathroom. The price tag for this is a little higher than the other projects, so it’s a little farther down on the list.

How to prioritize

The first three renovations are no-brainers. These need to get done. Securing the foundation is paramount for our family’s safety, the insulation is important to avoid possible water damage and lower heating costs, and taking care of the back porch/three-season room will expand the usable square footage.

You have to take into account a few things:

Family safety
Family comfort
Financial sense
ROI – Return on Investment

Safety is your number one priority. That’s what makes a home, being comfortable living there. Replacing windows can be expensive, but they will pay for themself over time with savings in utility costs. In terms of the bathroom, it should increase the value of the home, but how much we spend versus how much the value increases is a factor to consider.

Conclusion

Projects and renovations go hand in hand with home ownership. What’s important is prioritizing home renovations so you take care of what’s needed before you tackle what you want.

How To Ask for Reimbursement of Travel Expenses

March 3, 2021 by Jacob Sensiba Leave a Comment

At this point in time, business travel is less common than it used to be. I have a hunch that it will never return to pre-pandemic levels, as employers found it easier and less expensive to accomplish this through Zoom. It’s still important to know the ins and outs. Today we will cover how to ask for reimbursement of travel expenses.

What are travel expenses?

Travel expenses occur when an employee travels for business purposes. A business trip can include conferences, business meetings, client meetings, training, job fairs, etc. One thing about travel expenses, is you need to be sure you’re getting the best jet card program. You want to get as many points or cash back rewards as possible.

Travel expenses include lodging, food, rental car, tips for servers and bellhops, etc. Most organizations that require employees to travel on a regular basis have policies in place.

If an employee is traveling for an extended period of time or is at a particular location for an extended stay, the business may also include reimbursement to pay for your family to visit.

When entertaining a client or a business partner, there are limits on entertainment expense reimbursement, so make sure you check your company’s guidelines so you don’t breach that threshold.

How do employees pay for travel expenses?

Company credit cards, personal credit/debit cards, cash, or allowances given by the employer.

How to ask for reimbursement of travel expenses

If the corporate policies are unclear about the process, write a letter first. Before you go on a trip or take a client out for lunch, request the payment of the expense, or at least ask for some information about what is covered, what isn’t, and what the limits are. Establishing communication upfront is very important.

Per diem, aka travel allowance or an expense account, is recognized by the IRS. Per their guidelines, your expense report is due to your employer (usually HR) within 60 days. The report should include dates, location(s), and receipts.

If you have any allowances or advancements that haven’t been used or can’t be justified as a business expense, then you must return that to your employer. If you don’t return it, that money can be classified as taxable income.

Conclusion

As I said in the opening, I don’t believe business travel will return to pre-pandemic levels, but it’s important to know what travel expenses are and how to ask for reimbursement of travel expenses.

Review your company’s business travel policy for more information, and if your company doesn’t have one, speak to them about what’s covered, what’s not covered, and any limitations.

How You Can Help Your Brain Heal

February 24, 2021 by Jacob Sensiba 1 Comment

Your brain, my brain, everyone’s brain could sustain damage throughout life. The brain is incredibly resilient and has tremendous healing qualities. We will talk about what happens to a damaged brain and how you can help your brain heal.

My accident

Back in January, I got into an accident. Here’s what happened:

I went ice fishing with my dad. I pulled my car into a snow-covered parking lot. We got done fishing. I attempted to back out and my car was stuck. I pushed from the front and my dad hooked up his ATV to the back of my car, and I put the vehicle in reverse to help it out.

With my pushing and (mostly) my dad’s pulling, we got the car out. Unfortunately, the car didn’t stop rolling. I rushed to get into the car to stop it because I was in a parking lot and I was going to run into another car. As I attempted to get into the rolling car, I slipped and hit my head on the inside of my door.

I stopped the car though.

Aftermath

I definitely got a concussion. I’ve had a few before so I know what they feel like. You’re disoriented. Your equilibrium is off. Your brain is not firing on all cylinders. Sometimes you’re dizzy. Sometimes, it can knock you out cold.

I went to my parents’ house instead of going home because I had my son. I needed someone to watch him while I rested.

The following weeks have been interesting, to say the least. The week after required time off of work. I was dizzy, nauseous, had headaches, and had annoying brain fog.

The headaches and brain fog persisted for weeks to the point where I couldn’t take it anymore and got a CT scan. Thankfully, the scan came back normal, but I still have bad days. It’s going to take time.

While I rest and get better, I found ways to help myself.

Brain injuries

They’re incredibly common. Per the CDC, there are 2.8 million traumatic brain injuries per year. That number, though, is not accurate because the majority of people that experience a brain injury don’t get diagnosed. They don’t seek treatment.

A brain injury can result in physical ailments like brain fog, forgetfulness, trouble with day-to-day activities, and drowsiness. It can also lead to psychological illnesses like anxiety, depression, bipolar disorder, and mood instability.

Healing the brain

As I mentioned, the brain does an extraordinary job of healing itself. 90% of people that experience a traumatic brain injury recover without any long-term effects.

Here are some other things that I’ve implemented and some things I would like to do to help my mind and my body:

Meditation
Exercise
Eating healthy
Listening to music
Learning something new
Getting enough sleep
Brain stimulating games/activities

Exercise, eating healthy, and getting enough sleep to establish an imperative foundation for healthy living, but also helps tremendously when recovering from a brain injury.

Brain stimulating games, learning something new, and meditation are methods to help create new neural pathways

I believe establishing these practices in my daily life will help my brain in the short-term and the long-term.

Red Flags When Choosing a Financial Advisor

February 17, 2021 by Jacob Sensiba Leave a Comment

Finding a qualified, trustworthy financial advisor can be very tough. Not all of them are created equal. What requirements and/or rules they follow are not the same. There are some financial advisor red flags you need to be aware of when shopping. We’ll explore those in today’s post.

How was the first meeting?

What kind of vibes did you get from the person you met with? Did you have a good gut feeling or a bad gut feeling? Was there good rapport? Did the conversation flow naturally? Did they answer your questions?

These are all great questions to reflect on after you met with your first prospect. You have to trust your gut. If the conversation was good and flowed naturally, but you just didn’t get a good vibe from them, shop elsewhere.

If you think they were walking a line of honesty, whether they held back on telling you things or they made contradicting statements, I would either address it directly or walk away. This is your financial future we’re talking about. You have to make the right decision.

How are they governed?

Do they operate using the fiduciary standard or are they only required to do what’s suitable? As a fiduciary, the advisor is legally obligated to do what’s in your best interest.

For example, when making investment recommendations, an advisor that operates using suitability is only required to make recommendations based on what’s optimal for your investment objective, time horizon, and risk tolerance.

With the fiduciary standard, they use that same suitability but take it a step further. If there are two options for investment – one charges 1% and one charges .50%, the advisor will use the lower of the two because that’s in the client’s best interest.

What are they offering?

If you meet with a potential advisor and they say that they’ll beat the market, run the other way. If an advisor recommends annuities or variable products, I’d either stress that you’re not interested or move along. These are insurance products and there could be a conflict of interest.

How are communications?

Are they honest with their pay schedule? When you asked them about what they charge, were they clear with their answer? This is important. A wishy-washy answer is enough grounds for you to walk away.

Do they talk a lot or do they take time to listen to you? Advisors that talk more than they listen are often pitching a narrative that they believe instead of listening and creating a plan customized to your needs/wants.

How are they with following up? Does it take them forever to get back to you? An advisor that doesn’t make you feel important is a red flag.

Are they a “yes person”? Do they always agree with you? A key characteristic of good advisors is the ability to correct you or express their opinion about your financial plan. If there’s something that you would like to do, but they don’t think that it’s a wise move based on the plan you created, they need to tell you that.

Conclusion

Are there financial advisor red flags? Absolutely. We illustrated them here. Keep them in mind when you’re shopping and trust your gut. There are fantastic advisors out there, you just have to do a little work to find one.

Crypto, Reddit, Stock Market Thoughts

February 10, 2021 by Jacob Sensiba Leave a Comment

The last couple of weeks have been crazy in the stock market. With Reddit putting a short squeeze on Wall Street, crypto assets going gangbusters, and speculation about what inflation will do in the near future, there’s a lot to talk about.

Reddit vs Wall Street

Gamestop and AMC Entertainment are the two biggest names when we talk about Reddit investors.

A large number of shorts were put in by hedge funds and other big players on Wall Street. A specific Reddit account “recruited” its following to pile into the two companies named above. This group of “retail” investors drove the stock price up (as well as other investors that caught wind of their efforts).

Those hedge funds were forced to cover their shorts so they didn’t lose more money. The stock price for those two companies plummeted in the following days, but that doesn’t negate what Reddit did – they beat the big guys.

What’s a short?

A short is a type of trade. What you do is you borrow shares of a stock at a specific price in hopes that the stock price will drop. If it does, you buy back those shares at a lower price and collect the difference.

For example, if you bought shares of XYZ company at $20 and the share price of XYZ drops to $10, you would cover your short and earn $10 per share as a return.

It’s not for the faint of heart because stock prices effectively have no ceiling, so you could lose A LOT of money.

Crypto

Cryptocurrencies gained traction over the last few years as investors saw potential. After Bitcoin rose to $20,000 per BTC and crashed, it lost its allure.

Social media brought it back, thanks to Elon Musk. Slight changes in his Twitter bio moved the needle very effectively. Bitcoin is now hovering at $50,000 per BTC. Tesla invested a healthy sum in Bitcoin and will now accept payments in Bitcoin.

I believe other companies will adopt this policy and we will see Bitcoin used for purchases more regularly. There is a place for cryptocurrencies in this world, but it’s uncertain what kind of role it will play.

Short-term Thoughts

I go through quite a bit of research each week to get an idea of what the market environment looks like, what the economy is doing, and where there are risks and opportunities in the market.

With that said, the amount of times I’ve read the word “bubble” is alarming. The comparisons to the Dot Com Bubble and the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) are also a cause for concern.

Pundits are using the word “euphoria” more often.

There are a few things to pay attention to:

The divergence between the stock market and the economy. Typically, near the end of the business cycle, a difference between how the market is doing and how the economy is doing grows. Eventually, things will revert to the mean. That’s to say, the difference between the two will shrink.
Inflation. The Biden Administration is taking a different stance from past presidents. Inflation and overstimulation of the economy were areas of concern. President Biden is taking the other side of this argument, saying that he’d rather do too much, than not enough. Look for increased stimulus and less regard for inflation. If inflation starts to run hot, expect the FED to cool it down somehow.

Conclusion

Short-term policy changes and speculative movements in the stock market have little to no impact on the long-term performance of your portfolio. The one thing that really moves the needle is your behavior and how you respond to the news.

If you keep your long-term perspective in mind and keep your emotions in check, you should fare better than those that don’t.

What Is the Difference Between Strategic and Tactical Asset Allocation?

February 3, 2021 by Jacob Sensiba Leave a Comment

We’ve talked a lot about asset allocation on this platform. It’s my preferred method of investing and is often the one I recommend to my clients. There are different types of asset allocation, though. Tactical and strategic. What’s the difference between strategic and tactical asset allocation?

Asset Allocation

Before we explore the difference between those two, we should define what asset allocation is.

Asset allocation is a simple, but effective approach to investing your money. It takes into account your risk tolerance, investment objective, and time horizon (also known as suitability).

Using those three pieces of information, you divvy up capital to three (sometimes more) asset classes. Those are stocks, bonds, and cash. Other asset classes that can be included in your allocation include precious metals (i.e. gold and silver) and real estate.

For example, if someone has a moderate risk tolerance, an investment objective of using those funds for retirement, and a long term time horizon, an adequate asset allocation could be 60/30/10. 60% stocks, 30% bonds, and 10% cash.

The goal is to balance the risk/reward dynamics in a way that’s comfortable to you as the investor, using those three suitability items as the barometer.

What is strategic asset allocation?

Strategic asset allocation uses a long term approach. Uses your risk tolerance, investment objective, and time horizon to create the optimum asset allocation that balances risk and reward to fit the above criteria.

What is tactical asset allocation?

Tactical asset allocation uses a short to mid-term approach. Requires more flexibility as you will move in and out of securities as they fall in and out of favor. Strong discipline and understanding of markets are required to utilize a tactical approach.

The difference between strategic and tactical asset allocation

For the everyday investor, strategic allocation makes the most sense. It accomplishes what you’d want in any portfolio – it balances the risk and reward, and creates a portfolio that maximizes return potential while minimizing any inherent risks tied to those asset classes. It’s a “hands-off” approach to investing.

For a more experienced investor that doesn’t mind putting in the time and effort required to analyze and understand the market, trends, etc. tactical asset allocation makes more sense. Proceed with caution, however, as market timing can be very risky.

There are two key differences between strategic and tactical asset allocation. Tactical allocation requires more work, more knowledge, and more experience. Tactical allocation also requires the investor to be more disciplined and more tolerant to risk.

Additionally, tactical allocation takes more of a micro view of economics and the markets. Macroeconomists and strategists view investing from 30,000 feet. Tactical investors look at capsize (the size of a company based on shares outstanding and share price), industry, geographic location, etc. What’s performing well, what are the trends, what industry, location, etc. is likely to outperform in the near term.

Moving Back to the House

January 27, 2021 by Jacob Sensiba Leave a Comment

For today’s personal reflection, I’m going to talk about moving back to the house that K and I are currently renting.

K is my son’s mother and we are getting back together. I’m excited to grow with her and to make our relationship into something even better than it was before. But that’s not the point of today’s post. Today we’re talking about moving back to the house that’s being rented.

Current living situation

As a result of K and I getting back together, we had a conversation about where we wanted to live and raise our son. My current place that I’m renting was an easy choice because it’s within two minutes of my work and has a large enough basement that our son can play when it’s cold and/or rainy outside.

We’re moving!

After we had a conversation and I had time to reflect, the better choice is to move back into the house we own together. Our renters are moving out at the end of their lease and mine is up at the same time. I feel more at home in that house and in that city than I do currently. The drive is significantly longer, but I enjoy driving. It gives me time to either get into work mode or get out of work mode (depending on the time of day).

At the house, our son has a yard to play in, there are two playgrounds/parks within a few blocks, and we are near some water. What also played a role in the decision is where our son is going to school. We decided to enroll him in a private school, which makes the location of where we live a little less important.

Besides the drive, the only other thing I don’t like about this house is the basement. It’s a very old home. Over 100 years old, so the basement is very short and uneven.

The short-term plan

What we decided to do is to stick it out. We’re going to live in this home for a few years, pay down some outstanding debt, and save for a down payment. When we’re ready, we’ll look for a new home that checks all of our boxes.

There are some big and exciting changes coming down the line, and I’m very excited to take them on with K.

Inflation

Gold

Semiconductors

Related reading:

What is an NFT?

How’s it work with the artist?

What to watch for

Related reading:

What is a mobile home?

Why invest in mobile homes?

Conclusion

Related reading:

What we need to do

How to prioritize

Conclusion

Related reading:

What are travel expenses?

How do employees pay for travel expenses?

How to ask for reimbursement of travel expenses

Conclusion

Related reading:

My accident

Aftermath

Brain injuries

Healing the brain

Related reading:

How was the first meeting?

How are they governed?

What are they offering?

How are communications?

Conclusion

Related reading:

Reddit vs Wall Street

What’s a short?

Crypto

Short-term Thoughts

Pundits are using the word “euphoria” more often.

Conclusion

Related reading:

Asset Allocation

What is strategic asset allocation?

What is tactical asset allocation?

The difference between strategic and tactical asset allocation

Related reading:

Current living situation

We’re moving!

The short-term plan

Related reading: