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How My Finances Have Changed with Covid

May 20, 2020 by Jacob Sensiba Leave a Comment

Aside from the death and illness, it has caused, Covid-19 has done a number on the financial system and the economy.

I’m writing this on May 19th, and up to this point, over 30 million people have filed for unemployment benefits.

In my previous post, which can be found here, I detailed how you can plan in the event of job loss.

Even if you haven’t lost your job, more than likely, your finances have changed. In this article, I want to pull back the curtain on how my finances have changed during this environment.

My Job

Thankfully, I’m still working. I work for my family’s business. Technically speaking, we have four family businesses and I work three out of the four in various capacities.

Two out of those three businesses are very resilient during recessions, so I’m not terribly worried about my income from those two sources.

The last, however, will be influenced by movements in the market. If I do my job well, it shouldn’t vary a ton, but if I don’t, my clients will feel the pain, as will I.

The reason being is I, typically, charge a percentage of the assets under management (AUM). If account values go down, so does the fee I receive. The two go hand in hand, as they should. If I do a poor job, I should make less. It just makes sense.

With that said, my income hasn’t moved too much from the financial advising gig. It dropped a little bit last month, but I imagine it’ll come back up by the end of May, as the market has recovered.

Opinion: The Economy

I don’t know if I’ve mentioned it yet here, but my opinion of the economy is darker than some. I think there will be a cascade of bankruptcies in the public and private sectors.

With regard to the public sector, the companies that are rated BBB are already at record highs. When revenues stop coming in or significantly reduce, it’s hard for companies to make interest payments to lenders (holders of debt).

Companies will start defaulting on their debts, and the ability to pay, as well as other factors, help determine the credit rating. This will cause a slew of BBB rated companies to get downgraded.

Funds

With regard to fixed income mutual funds and ETFs, the vast majority of them have rules they need to abide by. One of those rules could be only investing in investment-grade companies.

Investment grade is anything from AAA to BBB. My fear is that when companies get downgraded from BBB to BB, it’ll cause funds to dump those companies; exasperating the sell-off.

My Finances

With that said, here’s how I’ve adapted.

My finances really haven’t changed much. I’m spending more on groceries, especially right now as I am stocking up on certain goods. The added benefit of that is I’m spending less on food from restaurants, which saves me money and I’m eating healthier too.

So you’re spending more on groceries and less on take-out…what else? Well, given the nature of Covid and the uncertainty that surrounds it, my priorities have shifted a little.

More Cash

I’ve planned my clients’ portfolios with the above scenario in mind. The majority of clients aged 60 and up are positioned more conservatively than normal. With that in mind, all of the portfolios I manage will take a little hit, and my income will drop as a result.

I’ve suspended my retirement contributions, via payroll deduction, until I feel comfortable again. This may seem counterintuitive because of the stress I put on leaving things alone and dollar-cost-averaging as prices go lower.

Due to the fact that my income has some variability, not to mention my rental property and the uncertainty of my renters’ making rent payments (because of talks about forgiving rent payments for those affected by Covid), I have to keep more cash available than normal.

Retirement Contributions

As I mentioned, I stopped my automatic retirement contributions, but I am making voluntary contributions to my Roth IRA when I feel my cash available is adequate.

Other than that, nothing else has changed. Debt payments will continue as planned and saving for a down payment on a house will also continue.

Be advised: Any opinion expressed about the market/economy is strictly an opinion and should not be viewed as a certainty. Additionally, my preparations for said opinions are specific to me. Consult your financial professional about your particular situation.

Investment Tips: How much should I have in my 401(k)?

May 14, 2020 by Susan Paige Leave a Comment

Part of planning for financial freedom is making sure that you are financially protected when you hit retirement. However, only a few know how to maximize their 401(k) in a retirement investment account as part of their overall portfolio.

If you want to explore the basics of investing your 401(k) to increase your retirement benefits, no worries. This article provides you with a summary of the five (5) most useful tips on how your 401(k) can help you retire with more financial security.

What are 401(k) Investments?

Before going into the details, you should know that a 401(k) investment is basically a retirement savings tool sponsored by your employer. This tool allows you to invest a portion of your paycheck into a retirement investment account. Your money will grow tax-free until you are retired, and that’s when you can use it.

The question that many ask is about the portion: how much of one’s paycheck should go into this retirement investment? In addition to that, here are some tips about putting a part of your paycheck to your 401(k) investments.

Invest Early

It is true that you can begin your retirement investment later when you are older. However, the earlier you start investing, the better. In fact, it is best to start contributing to your 401(k) as soon as possible. In doing this, you earn more. That’s just how compound interest works: you gain more interest when you start earlier. If you are a young worker, you have the advantage of the time that older folks will never ever have. Invest early.

See How Much You Can Set Aside

As a rule of thumb, you need to invest a percentage of your earnings that is equivalent to the difference between 100 and your age. For instance, if you are 20 years old, you need to invest 80% of your earnings as savings or into your retirement fund. This is based on the assumption that, at an early age, you still don’t have many responsibilities and can afford to invest more money.

If that amount or percentage is too high, you can decide on a fixed annual amount. For example, you can contribute a max of $19,500 to your 401(k) in 2020 if you are under 50. All you have to do is calculate a fixed amount below the threshold of $19,500.

Hire a Portfolio Manager

Still unsure or want to maximize your investments? You can explore other options such as using a robo-advisor such as Wealthfront or Betterment. This is one of the best options for someone who is unsure or does not know how much they should invest.

The robo-advisor will run the numbers for you to determine the best combination of investments in your 401(k) fund. You can set the target amount you need for retirement and the algorithms will compute how much you need to set aside every month or year so that you can have that amount when you retire.

Match Your Employer

Another way to determine how much you should contribute in your 401(k) is to look at how much your employer is contributing. For instance, if your employer only offers a maximum of 10% of your salary, then you should match your employer and contribute at least 10% as well to get the most out of your 401(k) investments.

Check Investment Types

When you contribute funds to your 401(k), you have to choose which investments it goes to. With each kind of investment, there is a specific percentage of return based on the risk profile. Since the percentage of return is different for each investment, your choice will affect how much you need to contribute in the 401(k) so that you can reach your target retirement funds.

If you have enough in your 401(k), before you start computing, consider the types of investments that you will choose. For instance, if you choose to invest in the stock market, you will earn more and faster but the risk is higher. If you want to do this, you might want to invest a lower amount.

On the other hand, you will have more stable returns if you invest in mutual funds. However, interest will be less so you want to contribute a higher amount to achieve the retirement fund levels that you want.

Takeaways

For dignity and independence, you want to retire with enough funds so that you won’t need to depend on help from your children or other people. With the investment tips summarized in this article, you can think about your best options to save and invest money in your 401(k) for your retirement. The five (5) points summarized in this article should help you begin to find the answers to all your basic questions and concerns.

For more great articles from The Free Financial Advisor, consider these:

Financial Planning Basics – The Financial Pyramid

How Long Should You Keep Financial Records After A Death

What Advantages Are There To Saving Money In The Bank?

How To Recover Paystubs From Your Old Job

Dealing with Market Fluctuations

May 6, 2020 by Jacob Sensiba Leave a Comment

Over the past couple of months, we’ve seen increased volatility. Put simply, volatility is periodic market fluctuations.

In a month, from the end of February to the end of March, we saw the S&P 500 drop nearly 35%. Obviously, it wasn’t a straight drop. There were several up days and a few relief rallies.

Since then, we have seen the S&P come back to the tune of 22%.

In this article, I want to give a little information about how I deal with market fluctuations, where I look for opportunities, and how retirement savers navigate these difficult times.

What I Learned

At the beginning of my career, I always dreaded experiencing a bear market. What do I do? Do I sell out of everything to avoid the decline? What do I tell my clients? How will they react?

As I gained more experience and read more, I learned what to do.

Keep in mind that I started my career in 2014, still in the middle of a long bull market, and since then I’ve read everything I could get my hands on about finances, markets, and economics. I’ve listened to podcasts and watched YouTube videos.

A lot of the people that I learned from attributed their success to when they got started. Two gentlemen really stick out.

One began his career in 1987 and lost his shirt on Black Monday (20% decline in one day, October 1987). This taught him about diversification and the importance of a long-term strategy.

The other got started in the early 80s but had a much different experience. He did some research and analysis and found a lot of risk in the credit market. He stuck his neck out on this trade and what he predicted came to fruition.

However, the markets didn’t react how he thought. What he learned was that fundamentals are important, yes, but what [almost] matters more is investor behavior.

Market Fluctuations

In periods of heightened market volatility, I pretty much hold my ground. I help my clients plan accordingly and coach them about what to do when stocks fall.

We put together the parachute before we jump out of the plane, not on the way down. That’s where people get into trouble. That’s why asset allocation is so important.

When building a portfolio, it’s vital to take your age (time horizon) and risk tolerance into account.

What may even be more important is the investor’s behavior. They might have a long time horizon and be fairly tolerant of risk, but if they’re going to lose sleep over a 10% correction, you need to position their portfolio accordingly.

Because my clients and I plan ahead, generally, I don’t do anything and I advise them to sit tight. What you don’t want to do is sell out of fear. At that point, you have probably experienced enough of the decline that it doesn’t make sense.

Exceptions

That said, I did some broad selling during the month of March. There were two positions that I used specifically to serve as a shock absorber during declines, and those did not perform as I’d hoped. So I sold them.

I realized they weren’t doing what I wanted them to and I cut my losses. Good traders and investors have an incredibly short leash when it comes to limiting their losses.

Opportunities

Generally speaking, I’m not a stock picker. I’m an asset allocator. Stock picking is not an efficient use of my time. However, sometimes it’s necessary and market fluctuations often create opportunities.

There are two positions, in particular, that I’ve been buying over the last month or two. I found enough of a disconnect between the price and what I thought the value would be over the long term, that I slowly invested into these two positions.

By the way, this slow investing is called averaging in, or dollar-cost averaging. Ideally, you invest at lower and lower prices, reducing your overall cost basis. My method is to take advantage of that disconnect I mentioned, but also leave enough on the side in case it goes lower so I can buy more.

How to Plan

Planning for market fluctuations isn’t something you do when you think it’s coming, it should be part of your plan all along.

Age is a big factor when determining the time horizon. The other items to consider, as I mentioned, are goals, risk tolerance, and investor behavior.

As an advisor, you have to be acutely aware and familiar with your clients, their risk appetite, and their personality. Only then are you able to plan with them, then guide them during trying times.

That’s probably one of the biggest things I’ve taken away from these market fluctuations. I’ve received two phone calls. That tells me that I’ve trained them well. That I’ve done a good job planning with them and that they are comfortable with how their portfolios are positioned.

Audit Your Digital and Financial Life

April 22, 2020 by Jacob Sensiba Leave a Comment

There’s no better time to audit your financial and digital life than tax time.

Having these two things orderly and up to date not only helps you stay organized but also gives you an opportunity to review your progress.

Review your budget

First things first. Review your budget.

Have any line items changed? Have there been additions? Maybe you paid off a debt and that line item can be dropped off?

If that’s the case, you can adjust your debt repayment plan. Whatever money was going to that paid off debt, funnel it a different one. You can do that by using one of two strategies.

One, the debt avalanche, where your dollars go to the debt with the next highest interest rate. Two, the debt snowball, where you focus that money on the debt with the next lowest balance.

Increase savings rate

If it’s been a while since you adjusted your savings rate, now is the time to see if you can tolerate an increase. Bump up your salary reduction plan an additional 1%. If you’re saving $50 per month for emergencies or your kid’s college fund, can you do another $10?

Review investment portfolio allocation

Is your current portfolio allocation still suitable? Whether or not you rebalance can hinge on two things. One, did your risk tolerance or time horizon change enough to warrant an adjustment? Or two, did your investments perform so that you’re no longer where you started?

Asset allocation tends to get out of whack when stocks perform well. 2018 is a good example, where the S&P 500 index finished up over 20%. More than likely, some rebalancing took place at the beginning of 2019.

Related: Why Asset Allocation Matters

Tighten up your expenses

Sell items you no longer have use for. You get rid of some clutter and can make a little money in the process.

Review your subscription list and get rid of things you don’t need. With so many subscription-based offerings, it’s easy to keep saying yes until you’re shelling out too much money each month. Audit these subscriptions and get rid of the ones you don’t need.

Call your internet provider. It’s more costly to acquire a customer than it is to retain a new one so they should work with you a little.

Do the same thing with your credit card company. They want to collect on the debt you owe them, so if that means lowering your APR by a percentage point or two, they’re more willing to help you out.

Related Reading: Quick and Easy Ways To Save Money

Digital

As our devices become more and more embedded in our way of life, we accumulate various types of accounts. Email, social media, and the like; this leads to endless different amounts of information that can be used against you. Time to purge (not like the movie).

Destroy or recycle old devices – This will clear up space that can be better used by something else. Make sure you wipe the device before recycling it.
Change passwords – Complex passwords are vital in our data-driven society. Long passwords with numbers and special characters must be used to protect your data.
Remove old accounts. Social media, email, and apps that you no longer use can be deleted and removed. Make sure that you delete the data from those accounts before you remove them, however. Just in case the owners of the site/app/program use the data from those apps for their personal gain.
Make sure your devices are up to date – This is elementary data protection. Up to date devices have patches for bugs and possible holes in their system. Your operating system is your first line of defense.

Keeping your life organized and performing a regular review/audit is imperative, whether we’re talking about your digital or financial life.

Financial Stability and Marriage

March 18, 2020 by Jacob Sensiba Leave a Comment

Marriage and finances. Why do these so often go together like oil and water? Why is money such a contentious topic in most households?

It’s because people go through life differently. Depending on how you were raised, what you learned, and what you personally experienced, your money philosophy will be different from that of your spouse.

Before we talk about that, however, I’d like to touch on financial stability and why the growing trend is being financially stable before committing to someone.

Financial Stability

It makes sense from a psychological perspective. Having financial stability makes you appear more mature and that you have your priorities straight. People who see that, probably see someone that’s ready for a commitment.

Additionally, getting married, and marriage in general, can be an expensive endeavor.

Obviously, it depends on the wedding you want, but the average price tag on a wedding nowadays is around $25,000 (source). Add onto that a honeymoon that could take you to another state, if not another country, and you’re spending a lot of money within the first month of being married.

What, historically, follows is a house and kids. Both, though worth every penny and minute, are expensive.

Because everyone has a different experience, and there are so many of them out there, I can’t go into detail about every one of them. Instead, I’ll speak generally about what they are trying to do.

Debt

People are trying to get out of or get a firm grasp on their debt. Whether it’s student loans, credit card debt, or medical bills, nobody wants to go into a committed relationship, let alone marriage, with a significant amount of debt.

Not only does debt hinder you from putting it towards future wants and needs, but when you get married, your debt becomes your spouse’s debt as well. You don’t want to burden them with that.

People want to be financially stable going into a marriage so they can afford the wants that often come with marriage, and they don’t want to be sacked with debt that brings down the family balance sheet.

Credit

Another piece of the financial puzzle that people try improving is their credit score. Your credit score plays a factor in almost every important life event. Where you live, where you work, and what you drive, your score could play a role.

Your financial philosophy is how you view money and how you use it.

Philosophy

Are you a saver or a spender? Do you view credit cards as a tool or a money sucker? When you do spend, do you prefer to buy stuff or experiences? Would you rather invest with the chance to earn more or put those dollars in a savings account for safekeeping?

As I mentioned before, your upbringing, what you’ve learned, and your personal experiences shaped the answers to these questions.

When you commit to a relationship, you’re going to have different answers. The key with any part of marriage, and money is no exception, are compromise and communication. You have to find some middle ground so each individual is getting their needs met, to an extent.

What you have to do is sit down with your significant other, dive deep into each other’s life experiences with regard to money, and what’s important to you, both now and in the future.

Once you have a good understanding of where you’re both coming from and what you want, you can work together to develop a plan, and once you have that plan, you can start executing

What Advantages and Disadvantages Are There To Saving Money In The Bank

February 23, 2020 by Jacob Sensiba 2 Comments

While saving money is indisputably a good decision, there are different routes and methods. Many people save their money in the best bank rather than invest it in the stock market. If you are having this debate, there are many things to consider. Here are a few advantages and disadvantages of saving money within a banking system.

Advantages:

Liquidity

Savings accounts are one of the most liquid investments. Your money is readily available. If this is important to you, saving money in a bank would be a better option than investing in the stock market.

Convenience

Storing your money in a bank is by far the easiest way to save. For one thing, it is user-friendly plus the advantages of online banking. You can set up automatic transfers from your checking to a savings account, it is effortless to instantly withdraw money from your savings, and it’s easy to track where your money is at.

Another benefit of linking the two is you protect yourself from overdraft fees. If you overdraw on your checking account, an automatic transfer from savings to checking will take place to keep your checking in positive territory.

Safety of money

A bank keeps your money untouched. In the stock market, there is always the risk of stocks doing poorly and you losing money rather than gaining. Your profits may be low while saving through a bank, but you are not taking the risks of losing large sums of money through your savings account.

Short Term Savings

Saving up for trips, down payments or expensive items that you foresee buying in the immediate future can easily be done. You can save up quickly in a savings account through your bank, and then immediately withdraw the cash when the time comes. For short term savings, this is the way to go.

Emergency funds/cushion

If you save your money in a bank, you will have immediate access if there is ever an emergency. If your car breaks down, don’t sweat it. Just pull some of your savings right away. This also is handy if you need a cushion within your budget during a tough month. There is less to stress over when you know that you have a back-up plan that’s easy to access.

Insurance

One huge advantage of saving your money at the bank or a credit union is your savings are federally insured by the FDIC or the NCUA. If there is a run on the banks or your credit union closes for some unforeseen reason, your cash is insured up to $250,000.

Disadvantages:

Low returns

Savings accounts typically earn less over a period of time than the cost of inflation. These low returns make saving at a bank a poor financial decision for the future. It may be a better choice to save money long term by investing it in mild and safe mutual funds.

Easy to Spend

Due to the convenience and ease of savings accounts, it is very tempting to spend the money that you are saving. Having your personal savings at your fingertips may cause you to spend more than if access was a little less readily available.

Rules

Banks limit the number of withdrawals you can make from your savings account each month. It’s called Regulation D and limits you to 6 withdrawals per month. Also, there may be fees for withdrawals. Typically, you cannot get checks connected to your savings. Know the rules for your particular bank.

Insurance

As I mentioned before, federal insurance at your banking institution is a wonderful thing, but it does have it’s limitations. Now, I would argue that saving in excess of $250,000 is unwise, but if you can afford to park a significant amount at the bank, just make sure it’s less than $250,000.

401k Withdrawal Taxes and Penalties

December 18, 2019 by Jacob Sensiba Leave a Comment

The 401k has grown in popularity over the last couple of decades because pensions have all but vanished; as a result, strategies around taking withdrawals and how to limit taxes and penalties are extremely prevalent.

In this article, we’re going to discuss the common penalties and taxes, and some of the strategies you can deploy to reduce them.

When a penalty typically applies

In almost all cases, a penalty applies if you withdraw from your account before the age of 59 ½. This is a 10% tax penalty. (Be advised: All withdrawals are subject to ordinary income taxes)

There is also a tax penalty if you fail to withdraw your Required Minimum Distribution (RMD). This applies to individuals over the age of 70 ½. This penalty, however, is 50% of the amount you should’ve withdrawn.

There are several exceptions, however.

Additionally, with the new Secure Act, there have changes to required minimum distributions, contributions, and others. For more information, click here.

When you are exempt from penalty

Withdrawal after 59 ½
Left employer after 55
Left employment in public safety after 50
Death distributions: your beneficiary is able to take distributions without penalty, regardless of their age
Totally and permanently disabled as defined by the IRS
72t rule – Agree to withdraw the same amount for a fixed period of five years or until you turn 59 ½, whichever is greater.
Unreimbursed medical expenses: You’re allotted to withdraw the unreimbursed medical expenses minus 10% of your adjusted gross income
If you over contribute to your retirement plan for the year, you’re allowed to withdraw the excess without incurring a penalty.
IRS Tax Levies
Divorce: Depending on your state and how you settle the divorce with your former spouse, he/she can withdraw their respective portion without penalty
Roth conversion: you pay taxes on the conversion, but there is no 10% tax penalty

*All exceptions may have certain requirements that need to be met to qualify for the exemption. Please check with your 401k Plan Administrator and Financial Advisor regarding your personal situation.

Taxes

With regard to tax-saving strategies on 401k withdrawals, there are no short-cuts or exceptions like there was for the penalty section.

The best way to save money on taxes when taking distributions is to be strategic.

If the expense you are withdrawing for is something that can be planned ahead of time, determine your current tax bracket, figure out how much you’ll need at that future date, and withdraw slowly over time (how much you withdraw depends on how soon you’ll need it).

For example, if you are in the 22% tax bracket, are $10,000 from going into the next bracket, and need $40,000 for a down payment in 4 years, then withdraw just under $10k each year.

This assumes that your income and tax bracket will stay the same.

Another way to go about it is to utilize Roth conversions. If the intention is to minimize or eliminate your tax liability for retirement, do a Roth conversion every year. Just be mindful of where you are in your current bracket, so you aren’t bumped into the next one.

In this example, however, it can be counter-intuitive because in most cases, your tax bracket in retirement is lower than it was while you are working. This is commonsense, though. You’re making less, so logically you would be in a lower bracket.

With regard to taxes, it comes down to math. If you need to withdraw from your 401k, crunch the numbers and figure out how you can do that while limiting your tax exposure.

Debt Collectors With Attitude

November 20, 2019 by Jacob Sensiba Leave a Comment

Debt collectors and debt collection agencies are a real pain! They’re persistent, and sometimes, they can be downright mean.

However, there are still laws that govern them. If you come in contact with an aggressive debt collector, here’s what you have to know.

Also, if you want to pay off your debt but you are financially broke, you can consider getting a personal loan.

Fair Debt Collection Practices Act

The Fair Debt Collection Practices Act (FDCPA) is the law that governs what third-party debt collectors can and can’t do.

Things they can’t do include calling before 8 am and after 9 pm based on your time zone, call you at work, harass, oppress, or abuse you, lie to you, threaten you with jail time, conceal their identity, disregarding a written request from you to cease contact or dispute a debt.

Debt collectors also can’t reveal any personal information about your debt to people, except your spouse or your guardian (if you’re a minor).

Mail correspondence can’t show that the mailer is from a debt collector. Also, if you hire an attorney and the collector has your attorney’s contact information, they must correspond with your legal counsel, not you.

If the aggressive debt collector violates any of the parameters set by the FDCPA, you have one year from the date of the violation to file a complaint. You can do that by using the online form, here, or by calling (855) 411-2372.

Take notes

If it ever gets to the point where you file a complaint or sue the aggressive debt collector, copious notes will help you make your case.

Get as many details as possible. Time, date, name of the collector, the agency they work for, the debt they are calling about, etc.

Hang up or don’t answer

If the call is from a number you don’t recognize, don’t answer. If the call was important, they’ll leave a message.

Typically, debt collectors are dialing for dollars (calling A LOT), so they typically won’t leave messages. If they do, listen to it and do your research to confirm if it’s legit or not.

In a lot of cases, consumers don’t know what they’re rights are. Even though collectors must abide by the laws set forth in the FDCPA, they might not if they think they’re speaking with an uninformed individual.

If they start badgering you, use aggressive language, or violate the law in any other manner, just hang up the phone.

Write a letter

You can write a letter to a debt collector for two reasons.

One, asking them to stop. They HAVE to stop if you put it in writing. Two, dispute the debt. If you believe that the debt they are trying to collect is fraudulent or not yours, write a letter to dispute it.

Cool heads prevail

Debt collectors are ruthless. Their objective is to get as much out of you as possible before they sell the remaining portion of your debt to the next collector in line.

It’s human nature to get worked up or downright pissed off in this situation, but getting angry won’t help you.

Collectors have been conditioned to withstand a verbal thrashing from consumers. Staying calm will keep your blood pressure down and help you think straight.

Our New Low(er) Interest Rate Environment

September 25, 2019 by Jacob Sensiba

With the talk of interest rates and recession in the headlines, I figured it was a good time to check-in, and give a little update on interest rates and how lowering them can impact the economy, issuers, and investors.

Why is the FED cutting?

Basically, the FED is cutting to extend the current economic expansion we are in.

The fundamental reason behind that is lower interest rates encourage corporations and consumers to spend more.

For two reasons.

One, they get paid very little, in interest, to put their money in the bank. And two, they are able to borrow money at lower rates.

Current income needs

People who need income, retirees, for example, invest their money in income-producing securities. Often times, those securities are fixed income instruments, like bonds.

Bonds pay interest on a semi-annual basis. The higher the credit quality of the issuer (company or government entity) the lower the payout. The inverse is true for a low credit quality issuer.

It’s the ever-present adage in investing, more risk equals more potential for reward.

When interest rates continue to creep lower, then those people start to make different choices.

What people are doing now

People are getting paid less, in interest, to invest in high-quality debt issuers, so they’re getting riskier. Meaning, they are investing that money with low credit quality companies and/or government entities.

Their risk of not receiving interest payments and getting their principal (the initial investment) back goes up.

The FEDs tool kit

I’ve touched on this point a few times in the past, but I’m going to hammer it home.

The Federal Reserve, essentially, has two tools. Lowering interest rates and buying Treasuries. Lowering interest rates promotes spending and buying Treasuries provides liquidity.

Because they are lowering interest rates during an expansion (whether we are still in one or not is debatable, but let’s say we are for the sake of argument), they are, effectively, removing the number of tools they have available.

When the next recession comes, my fear is they won’t be able to do enough to help us out of it.

Corporate debt

Currently, the amount of corporate debt in the market is the largest in history. Additionally, the amount of debt that’s rated BBB is also the highest in history.

BBB is the last rung on the investment-grade scale. Investment grade is anything BBB and above.

That’s a problem for basically one reason. When a BBB rated issuer gets downgraded (to BB) they are classified as junk (high-yield). When that happens, they need to tighten up their debt and improve their balance sheet. This means less borrowing and less spending.

It’s a dynamic that feeds itself. The issuer is downgraded, they spend less, GDP gets weaker, more corporations follow suit, and here comes the recession.

Investors

Once the corporate (high-yield) debt pops, issuers of debt will have trouble meeting their obligations. They’ll start to default, and their investors will be left high and dry.

Conclusion

This post is not intended to scare people, it’s to inform.

One last point. Because interest rates have been so low for so long, there are economists/academics that think the lowering of interest rates won’t actually help.

Inexpensive Fall Activities

August 28, 2019 by Jacob Sensiba Leave a Comment

With Fall quickly approaching I thought it’s fitting to write an article about the (inexpensive) activities you can partake in that won’t break the bank.

Below you’ll find a large number of fun things you can do when the leaves start to change.

Go for a hike – Depending on where you go, this can be free! If the hike takes place in a state park, there might be a small fee. Regardless, a hike is a great way to spend time, get exercise, and experience nature.
Pick pumpkins – This is an autumn staple! Go to your local pumpkin patch and pick out your favorite pumpkin. Then figure out what design, pattern, or face you’ll carve into it and go to town!
Have a picnic – Ingredients for sandwiches, potato salad, chips, and a dessert item. What else could you need? Through in an item from below (scenic drive) and a nice spot to set up, and you’re good to go! Inexpensive and relaxing.
Apple orchard – Go apple picking! Gives you a great excuse to go outside, walk, and hand-pick some healthy food for yourself. A typical orchard operation will charge you $1.25-$2.00 per pound.
Local festivals – Most of these are free or cheap to attend, with most of the cost coming from the games and events you participate.
Maze – Many of the fall festivals will have a maze. These are typically made from hay bales. Additionally, farms that have pumpkins to be picked sometimes have a corn maze and/or hayrides. I have one of those near me and it was a ton of fun, and cheap too.
Football games – Local high school games are really exciting to watch. They’re inexpensive to go to, they usually have good food, and you get to show off some hometown pride. Added bonus, you could have a promising player on your team or one on a visiting team to watch. I don’t know about you, but watching a special talent is…well..special!
Haunted house – I’m partial to the scary stuff because I’m into things that frighten me, but haunted houses are awesome. Yes, some are quite lame, but when they’re done right, it’s exhilarating!
Sit around the campfire – This is an incredibly relaxing activity. Sitting around a fire with your family and/or friends, roasting marshmallows, and making smores – can’t get much better. Costs nothing more than marshmallows, graham crackers, and chocolate!
Scenic drive – For me, there aren’t many things that can beat a scenic car ride (the previous item does). Especially in the fall. Trees change colors, there’s a slight nip in the air, and it just smells like autumn.
Scary movie marathon – I understand that scary movies aren’t for everyone, but if you have a few and invite people over that bring additional movies, you can make a long and scary evening out of it. If you don’t have scary movies, go to your local library and check some out. It’s free!
Make collages with leaves – This could be a nice, little craft you can do as a family. Especially if you have young kids. They love getting messy and creating with their hands. They can also have a ton of fun jumping in leaf piles before you pick the leaves out for your collage.
Ghost hunting – Seriously. In doing research for this post, this actually came up, and it surprisingly checks out. There are a number of apps available.

All-in-all, autumn is my favorite time of year. I love the weather, the leaves changing, and all of the fun things you can do. I recommend doing at least one of these activities in the next few months!

Jacob Sensiba

www.crgfinancialservices.com/

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